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rcp

Perpetual primary update

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RCP:

Puerto Rico (55 delegates): Clinton 50%, Obama 37%
Montana (16 delegates): Obama 52%, Clinton 35%
South Dakota (15 delegates): Obama 46%, Clinton 34%

Raw projection:
Clinton: +38 delegates
Obama: +35 delegates
Net: Clinton +3

Today's big meaningless contests

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RCP North Carolina average: Obama +8. No recent poll has shown an advantage for Clinton. Obama has overcome a Clinton lead of 24 points in November.

Post PA, On to NC: The Neverending Story

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Clinton, as of the Little Dork’s bedtime, is up 10% (9.5 according to Field hands). Pat Buchannan is on MSNBC curiously claiming that Clinton has “momentum in her favor.” Despite the near mathematical impossibility of her winning, and perhaps much to the pleasure of the press corps, we continue to call this a contest.

Obama should drop out

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Haha. Just kidding. Did I get your attention? Anyway, here's a fun delegate math fact (assuming my math is correct):

If you believe RCP's current pledged delegate counts, neither candidate can mathematically get to 2025 to win the nomination even if they win every single delegate in every single remaining primary.

If you believe RCP's current "pledged superdelegate" counts, Clinton would have to win 92% of the delegates up for grabs in the remaining primaries, and Obama would

How do you solve a problem like Florida?

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Weeks ago we crossed the line where it became likely that the “super delegates” would decide the Democratic nomination.  Now we are approaching the point where they still won’t determine the outcome.  That’s an even bigger nightmare scenario for national Democrats

Underlying Conclusions in New Hampshire

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Based on the latest round of statewide polls, Red State offers its analysis and conclusions as to the chances of John McCain and Mitt Romney

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